Holiday Commercials And Flickering Lights

Do TV ads work? Sure they do, but how much? According to the Retail Advertising and Marketing Association Broadband TV makes up 23% of the media influencers and Cable TV accounts for 12% (Coupons being the number one influencer at 45%). It has been a long time since a commercial made me want to shop and since I have become an expert at tuning them out; very few actually get through.

Recently I saw a ranking from the Retail Advertising and Marketing Association that rated the top ten holiday commercials  and I though about my favorites. I loved the Gap commercials with the overly cheery group draped in flannel. It reminds me more of an ad for America’s Best Dance Crew than Gap, but their moves get me each time. However my favorite commercial is the flickering lights at Wal-Mart one. Where the cashiers are switching on and off the lights at the registers to Christmas carols. Would I shop Wal-Mart, sure, but I would be more inclined to go into their store and brave the holiday crowd if they actually did the light thing.

On the other hand Old Navy commercials are a huge miss for me. They are corny and those mannequins freak me out. I am drawn to their feature item of the week, but am scared away from the stores when I see those weird mannequins. Can we get them already?

Target was another huge disappointment and many consumers seem to agree with me. Complaints surfaced on Facebook by scorned people complaining about the casting doubt Santa’s existence and talking about finances. Where is the Christmas spirit, Target? Give me some flickering lights!

So, how does my preferences fair against the survey?

Top Ten Holiday Commercials According to Retail Advertising and Marketing Association:

RETAILER:
Walmart
Target
Best Buy
Gap
Macy’s
Old Navy
Kmart
Sears
Hallmark
Kohl’s

Even with great ads consumers aren’t influenced by their favorite commercials as many retailers might hope. 17% of consumers surveyed said that their favorite ad influenced them to shop at that particular retailer.

What influences you to shop?

Social Media Influencing The Numbers.

According to comScore there is a 3% increase over last year form the first 36 days of the November-December Holiday shopping season. The numbers are up across the board shopping a 10% in Thanksgiving Day sales, Black Friday sales were up 11%, and Cyber Monday up 5%.

What attributed to these numbers? Prior to Black Friday we saw a rise in retailers pushing their ads on Social Networking sites such as Facebook and Twitter. Through a survey conducted by comScore 28% of the shoppers purchases were influenced by these sites. From this expert and consumer customer reviews of a product seemed to influence the most people. Others were drawn to become a fan on Facebook and follow store discounts, watching a video, or following on Twitter.

“Social media really appears to be emerging as an important marketing channel this holiday season,” says Gian Fulgoni,  comScore chairman. “On the one hand, its emergence is being driven by increased consumer adoption of these technologies and the exponential growth in digital word-of-mouth that is occurring over this medium. On the other hand, having a social media marketing strategy makes sense for retailers in this environment because it’s cost-effective and shows an effort to get closer to one’s customers. I think we are getting our first real glimpse at the impact social media will play on commerce as we enter the next decade.”

December Outlook

The Consumer Reports Index says that the outlook for December will be strong. Overall the planned spending is looked to increase 36% from last month with the major seller being personal electronics, major electronics, and small appliances.

“Despite the fact that the average consumer has not experienced much improvement in their financial lives in the past six months, they appear to be buying more for the holidays,” said Ed Farrell, a director of the Consumer Reports National Research Center. The Consumer Reports Employment Index is at 48.9 (49.0 in November). A indicator that the job market really hasn’t changed.

So, what kind of ramifications will this have on the market in the coming months? Farrell went on to explain that the growth in sales for retail will be seen this month, but to recover consumers will cut back in their spending post-holiday.

December Sales Week 2

Breaking down some of the numbers coming out of the weekend ICSC-Goldman Sachs found that the chain store index is up 0.4% for the week ending on December 12 from the prior week. It is also up 2.4% from last year. However consumers seem to still haven’t finished their shopping with only about 56.9% done. This remains lower than last year.

Over the last week some chain retailers offered big sales offering anywhere from 50%-75%, while others seemed to hold back a bit on the big price cuts. This week will see a huge boost in sales being the last weekend to shop before Christmas. How low will retailers actually go to get the crowds into their stores?

November Sales

Retail sales for November have been tallied and it’s not looking good. Twenty-three major retailers have seen declines from the same time last year.

Here are the highlights:

Those that should be happy:

2009              2008

Aeropostale           -17.0%           -28.0%

JC Penney              -5.9%             -11.9%

Macy’s                     -6.1%            -13.3%

Neiman Marcus    -5.5%           -12.0%

Target                      -1.5%            -10.4%

Those that wondering why everyone is complaining about sales:

2009              2008

Buckle             +1.4%           +14.5%

Kohl’s             +3.3%            -17.5%

Nordstorm     +2.2%            -15.7%

Ross                +9.0%            -2.0%

Those that need to break out a bottle of whiskey and rethink their 2010 strategy:

2009              2008

Children’s Place               -13.0%            -7.0%

Costco                                   -5.0%           +0.0%

Destination Maternity    -11.6%           +0.6%

Gap                                        -4.0              -10.0%

Saks                                       -26.2%           -5.2%

Stage Stores                         -12.5%           -4.8%

Cyber Monday

October saw a 1.4% increase in sales from the previous year (healthy sales are an indicator of a healthy/recovering economy) leaving hope for a promising November. After all it is when retailers start bringing in the money. But when the numbers were said and done November sales were only up 0.7% from last year and according to analysts even giant discount stores didn’t provide the expected numbers. Even with the bad news of less than impressive Black Friday sales there is a bright spot on the horizon.comScore who track online trends, there was a 5% increase in spending on Cyber Monday.

Here’s the break down:

The average spent per person online per person rose from $130.24 in 2008 to $180.03 in 2009.

There was an increase of new online consumers for department stores 33% on Cyber Monday and 150% on Black Friday.

13.7% rise over sales the same time last year.

What could attribute to this? Well, retailers have become smarter at marketing; utilizing social networking sites like Twitter, Facebook, and blogs.

Another reason could be inventory levels. Stores were left with to much inventory last year resulting in drastic price cuts. This some stores have cut inventory levels by 20% or more. This translates to less items in the store with fewer colors, sizes, and styles driving people online to not only get what they need and often finding a greater array of product than can be found in the stores.

However I would also look at another factor: connivence. Consumers are still unsure about the condition of the economy and are holding on to their money. Websites offer something that is much harder to do in stores, especially on Black Friday, comparison shop. Within seconds  anyone can compare the a shirt at Macy’s with the same one at JCPenn, Teyarget, and Kohl’s. Throw on top of that the online price wars and it isn’t surprising why people are turning to the internet for shopping.

Weigh in on this. Do you think that online sales vs store sales will be an indicator of the economy’s health in years to come?

December Sales Round Two

The standoff has started. Bargin shoppers vs chain-stores holding back on the big discounts. Round one went to the shoppers who didn’t shell out the big bucks this Black Friday.

According to UBS 9 out of 10 shoppers want at least 50% off and America’s Research Group ltd. reported that a third of the people they survey are awaiting 70% before spending.

The stores on the other hand are walking a thin line. If items are discounted to much than it will drastically cut into sales which will hurt struggling stores but sales that aren’t good enough will keep shoppers out of their stores and profits down.

However don’t count the chain stores yet. They have contingency plans in their back pockets that they will pull out as a last resort. The chief executive of Ann Taylor Stores Corp, Kay Krill, said that they have banners for discounts ready, but don’t want to go ahead with them until they have to. Other retailers carried over their Black Friday sales for the rest of the week or expanding those sales.

The next round will be declared this weekend with only two shopping weeks left. Who do you think will take it?

Instant Credit

Enter any department store or look at any ad these days to and it isn’t hard to see stores offering incentives for not only opening a card at their store, but also offering special sales to those who use their store card. The Federal Bank is on the move to make it harder for stores to provide instant credit at their registers. What do they want to do? They want customers to provide information about how much they earn before credit is granted. Currently credit scores of the customers, which checks their payment history, is checked before anyone can qualify. This is used as an indicator can or will pay their bills.

Major stores like Macy’s and Saks are fighting this proposal. Stating that asking someone to provide information about their income or assets could be awkward especially with other customers standing around. It also calls into question the accuracy of the information that would be provided. It also calls into question how this proposal will improve the credit-granting process.

If the this proposal is past stores are going to have to rethink their marketing strategies that include loyalty programs that spur sales with special discounts or promotions. It will also hinder their way of tracking spending habits.

Currently there is not deadline for the proposal that will also include attention to increasing intreats rates and increasing the requirement of when statements need to be sent.

After all would you feel comfortable about handing over your yearly salary to a cashier in addition to your address, name, birthdate, social security number and other personal information?

Black Friday

The numbers are in for Black Friday, but the numbers aren’t what some expected. Traffic in stores was up 13% from 2008, but according to the National Retail Federation, spending was down 8% per person. Why is this happening? Some stores say that warmer than usual weather left their seasonal items on the shelf. Others claim that in time of economic downturn people will spend closer to need. It is also no shock that many people are still watching every dollar. That brings us to the most likely reason: the discounts. Trolling the Black Friday ads very few stood out as offering better discounts than normal or even at all. With consumers looking for discounts comparable to last year (some stores cut as much as 75%) they are sending the clear message that they are willing to wait for a better price, but this may leave them in them in shock. Some stores like M. Fredric are not offering storewide discounts and consulting groups are advising their clients to do the same. Many stores and boutiques can’t compete with the large discounts stating that it would put them in financial ruin. Instead they opt to offer better prices on unique items. While the stores and consumers battle it out over the discount war many stores knew that this standoff was inevitable and calculated it into their strategy. They are offering deals until Christmas to encourage sales. How about you? Were you out spending Thursday or waiting it out the discounts?